PhotoCredit: MandyFontana
A curious thing has been happening in businesses around the world. With the rug somewhat pulled out from under them, companies are having to think about how to survive a universe of depressed revenues. A few businesses are seemingly pandemic-proof. It’s an exceptional time to be in the flour industry. Supermarkets have been obvious winners in a world where there has been low-to-no dining choice. Airlines are at the other end of the spectrum; “wintering” fleets, routes and employees in an attempt to stay alive.
Most businesses will sit somewhere in the middle. Through necessity I have become a student of economic shock. It’s been fascinating observing industry at large absorb the seismic waves of Covid-19.
Many businesses took an early lead with good market messaging. Most are now silent. As if the real issues are behind us. I personally believe that, certainly in the US and likely world over, the Northern-Hemisphere summer is propping up a depressed market. Winter is coming. It will likely hit hard.
As a mentor and advisor, I counsel agility. Usually when I speak about agility I am talking about technology development: my familiar playground of sprints, scrums and stand-ups. Agile development is still important but, right now, it’s imperative to be an agile business.
A friend referred to this as “the dance between planning and execution.” There is an implication of fluidity in her offering that is central to the delicate balance that today’s commerce hangs on. Yes we need to plan and absolutely we must rethink our strategy. We must also understand that there is so much we still don’t know.
The best way to plan for unknown variables is to incorporate feedback loops into your execution strategy. Step One is to set clearly defined objectives, outcomes or goals you are trying to achieve. Make them detailed, this is no time for wishy washy statements of intent.
Step Two is to make them measurable and time bound. Some people like to use S.M.A.R.T goals. I love the OKR system.
I don’t mind what methodology you use, Step Three is what I care about. Step Three is that you create a regular review process where you assess your expectations against reality. Are you performing as you expected? Is the market performing as you expected? What’s working and what do you need to rethink?
One of the businesses I work with decided to monitor daily transactions. This is our unknown variable, so we track the data. It has been illuminating. We have a million hypotheses about what the volumes will be. They are all hunches and guesswork. This information forces a daily assessment of our strategy by focussing us on the reality of our industry.
Thinking through the lens of what you don’t know affords a little knowledge in an unknowable world. It allows you to be fluid with the execution of your strategy as you see the hard truths of the reality you are working in. President and CEO of Ford, Alan Mulally, famously said “Data will set you free.” Free to dance perhaps?